Philosopher Karl Popper mused that anything we study can be divided into two categories: clocks and clouds.
Clocks are easily broken down into individual parts, what each component does and precisely how changing that component will affect the clock’s performance. When trying to find out why a clock is not working properly it is simply a process of finding the malfunctioning part.
In contrast, a cloud is made up of numerous components whose individual contribution is random and unpredictable. In describing the formation of a cloud, one can only describe the conditions leading to the cloud’s formation without fully knowing exactly to what extent each component contributed.
Apply this analogy to reviewing incidents and accidents on the fireline. Are we dealing with clocks? Sometimes. Mark III pumps and aircraft engines are certainly “clocks.” But looking at an entrapment scenario is much more like a “cloud.”
When using past events to learn, thinking and talking about this distinction—of clocks and clouds—can be helpful.
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